An independent derivation of the VAERS URF using the CMS death data leads to a URF of 44.64 which then leads to a 388K excess death estimate.
My estimate of the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) at 41 was based on anaphylaxis rates reported in the Blumenthal paper published in JAMA.
I have argued that the anaphylaxis rate is an appropriate number to use to (under) estimate deaths because I believed that deaths would be less reported than anaphylaxis to VAERS for two reasons: 1) usually lacks the time proximity to vaccination, 2) the person seeing the death may not know the vaccination status of the victim and may not technically be required to report the death.
Some people have quibbled with that assumption, including my friend Professor John Ioannidis, who argued that there is no evidence that that is true and it could be the other way around. It’s a fair point and I told John it’s only an estimate and I’m happy to modify it when we have more data.
That day has arrived courtesy of Wayne at VAERS Analysis.
Wayne did a URF computation using death data in CMS. This overcomes any objections about the validity of using anaphylaxis rates as a proxy for death rates.
The VAERS URF he computed was 44.64.
This seems reasonable to me. It’s really not far from the 41 I calculated.
Also, Wayne subsequently looked at the numbers for 9 states. The average value was 40, not far from the 41 I calculated from anaphylaxis.
I had two team members (Albert Benavides and Jessica Rose) double check his numbers. No mistake.
Now, let’s see what that means.
As of Dec 14, 2021, there are 9,136 deaths reported into VAERS for domestic deaths (if you are using OpenVAERS, flip the switch at the top to see the US only deaths). If we subtract out more than twice the total number of deaths reported in any previous year (to be super conservative about estimating background deaths):
So our new best estimate of the number of “excess deaths” caused by the vaccine is 388,000. Because there isn’t a plausible mechanism of excess death other than the vaccine (certainly our “always vigilant” CDC has never suggested an alternate cause), the process of elimination leads us to conclude the obvious: that these excess deaths were, in fact, caused by the vaccine.
This should really be a surprise to anyone paying attention to the clinical trials.
For example, in the Pfizer trial, you were much more likely to die if you got the vaccine than if you got the placebo. They simply forgot to mention that in the abstract of the paper (and they were incapable of accurately counting the number of deaths in each group as well). In short, the vaccine is a killing machine.
As the clinical trial showed, it was more likely to kill you than to save you. America still refuses to actually acknowledge that fact.
388,000 dead Americans is simply stunning
Today, our best estimate of vaccine fatalities using the VAERS data is that the US Government is responsible for killing 388,000 formerly healthy Americans. For no reason or societal benefit. Under the guise of saving them.
And we’re not done yet. Those kids with myocarditis? Half of them could die in 5 years. We just don’t know. Prion diseases… we don’t know. Autoimmune diseases… we don’t know. Reproductive issues… unknown. Original antigenic sin? Possibly. You get the idea.
By contrast, the Vietnam War was a long, deadly struggle that took place from 1954 to 1975 between North Vietnam and South Vietnam. The U.S. National Archives shows that 58,220 U.S. soldiers perished over the 21 years. Here, we’ve killed more than 6 times as many people in a fraction of the time… just 11 months.
No one in mainstream media will dare talk about this. They won’t even ask the question. Not a single reporter.
Nobody in Congress will discuss it either. I tried to bring this information to the attention of Congressional staff, but they have ignored my requests.
Of course the FDA and CDC have no comment other than they “disagree” with me. They won’t say why. Wow. We have a discrepancy of 388,000 Americans dead and they won’t even say why I got it wrong.
I’m guessing that they can’t say why because I used their numbers (they maintain VAERS and CMS) and their methodology and there were no math errors. So they have to go with the “hand waving” argument that “we disagree” since they can’t go with facts, evidence, data, or methodology errors.
As for all the bogus arguments about VAERS and causality that are used by the “so-called fact-checkers” to attack my work, I thoroughly dismantle those in my 63-page article. That is why none of the people at the FDA or CDC are willing to talk on the record to me: because I know how to dismantle their bogus excuses for looking the other way. They won’t talk to any of my associates either. They just don’t want to hear it.
Let me know in the comments if you find an error.
Finally, I know some of you are still unconvinced by all the data including the stunning athlete data. I’m OK with that. I just have one request. Please consider sharing this article with your social network before you get your booster. OK?
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By Steve Kirsch · Thousands of subscribers
I write about COVID vaccine safety and efficacy, corruption, censorship, mandates, masking, and early treatments. America is being misled by formerly trusted authorities.
Steve Kirsch https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/latest-vaers-estimate-388000-americans